Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Ascent Manila 2026
decks
29
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
253
147-89-17
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.9%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
58.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1431
· median 1472
· range 1062–1730
(29 pilots with an ELO rating)
1061
Q1 1211
Q3 1431
1730
55% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
10% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 36 | 25-9-2 | 72.2% | 70.0% | 65.7% | +5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 22 | 15-6-1 | 70.5% | 67.3% | 63.4% | +5.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 25 | 11-12-2 | 48.0% | 48.3% | 44.9% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 34.8% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 17 | 10-6-1 | 61.8% | 59.5% | 62.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 20 | 12-5-3 | 67.5% | 64.6% | 70.6% | +7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 33 | 10-19-4 | 36.4% | 37.8% | 30.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 10 | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 67.9% | 74.3% | +10.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -4.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.8% | +5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 72.8% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 35.5% | -7.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 69.1% | +9.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +1.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 75.6% | +19.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 30.7% | -14.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.0% | +21.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +23.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.6% | +20.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.9% | +28.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
Decklists · 29 from this event
The 29 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 21 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Staggering Strike, Longtail Grovesward. Losers more often ran: Displace, Innervate Agility, Aesan Protector.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 11.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 9.
Longtail Grovesward
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 8.
Royal Oathguard
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 14.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 15.
Beseech the Winds
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 7.
Displace
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.9.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 9.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 10.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 9.
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 7.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 11.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 11.
Show all 57 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Displace | -0.29 | 3 | 9 | 9 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.24 | 3 | 8 | 10 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.19 | 5 | 9 | 7 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.19 | 4 | 0 | 17 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.19 | 3 | 7 | 4 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.19 | 3 | 7 | 11 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | -0.14 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 5 | 8 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 18 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.14 | 5 | 8 | 8 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 18 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.14 | 8 | 5 | 5 | |
| Royal Oathguard | +0.14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Winds of Destiny | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.10 | 4 | 2 | 15 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | |
| Harness Lightning | +0.10 | 4 | 2 | 15 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.10 | 3 | 5 | 9 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.10 | 6 | 8 | 4 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.10 | 5 | 3 | 4 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -0.10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | |
| Diablerie | +0.10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.10 | 7 | 5 | 5 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sylph's Envelopment | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.05 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 18 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 20 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.05 | 5 | 4 | 8 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.05 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| Illuminate Secrets | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 19 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 9 | 9 | 3 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 |